Inhaltsangabe

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.
©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio
Mehr anzeigen Weniger anzeigen

Regulärer Preis: 23,95 €

Details zum Angebot: Details zum Angebot:
  • 1 Hörbuch pro Monat
  • 30 Tage kostenlos testen
  • Dann 9,95 € pro Monat
  • Jederzeit kündbar
  • Unbegrenzt Audible Original Podcasts hören
Bitte wählen Sie ein Zahlungsmittel aus oder fügen Sie ein Neues hinzu

Für 1 Guthaben kaufen

Bei Abschluss Ihrer Bestellung erklären Sie sich mit unseren AGB einverstanden. Bitte lesen Sie auch unsere Datenschutzerklärung und unsere Erklärungen zu Cookies und zu Internetwerbung.

Für 23,95 € kaufen

Kauf durchführen mit: Zahlungsmittel endet auf
Bei Abschluss Ihrer Bestellung erklären Sie sich mit unseren AGB einverstanden. Bitte lesen Sie auch unsere Datenschutzerklärung und unsere Erklärungen zu Cookies und zu Internetwerbung.

Bei Abschluss Ihrer Bestellung erklären Sie sich mit unseren AGB einverstanden. Bitte lesen Sie auch unsere Datenschutzerklärung und unsere Erklärungen zu Cookies und zu Internetwerbung.

Kritikerstimmen

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." (Rachel Maddow, author of Drift)
Mehr anzeigen Weniger anzeigen

Kundenrezensionen

Hilfreichste
3 out of 5 stars
Von Damian Am hilfreichsten 22.04.2016

Boring at times, interesting sections

Very interesting some of the time but often way too much detail given Eg long passages about baseball batting averages and the like. Thought provoking nonetheless.

Mehr anzeigen Weniger anzeigen

1 von 1 Hörern fanden diese Rezension hilfreich

4 out of 5 stars
Von Serendip Am hilfreichsten 20.08.2016

Rather pedestrian

Nothing much new in substance for someone who has some understanding of probabilistic thinking, but interesting profiles of persons involved.

Mehr anzeigen Weniger anzeigen
Alle Rezensionen anzeigen